Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Coincidence

I am sure there are many ways to describe and quantify coincidence. There are those things that happen when we expect them to--that may be coincidence, but it may also be that the reason we expect them to happen is that subconsciously we know they are likely to. So, not so much coincidence as the result of subconscious analysis. Then there are the small world, six degrees of separation stories that I love to collect. Finally, there is probability and coincidence from the mathematical standpoint. What are the odds that your favorite number coincidentally turns out to the same number the lottery picks as a winner?

I think we are talking about the third category here. Last Saturday, we got a somewhat agitated phone call from an attorney who works at the Dept. of Agriculture, Trade, and Consumer Protection. She apologized for not calling back sooner, but she had been tailgating at the football game and had her phone off. Nevertheless, a call on Saturday from my husband, the Risk Manager at DATCP, could mean only one thing: activation of the emergency phone tree.

There was only one problem. He hadn't called her. In fact, we hadn't called anyone all morning. Nevertheless, she was certain. Caller ID gave his name and the call back number was certainly our home number. There was a garbled message, something about "Did you turn off the phone?" Suddenly the light dawned. Tom's brother had stopped by earlier in the day and asked to use the phone before he left. He had to make a call about his daughter, but he misdialed, hung up, and dialed again.

We live in a metro area of 350,000 and the number of people who can be reached by calling a local number is certainly greater than that. Here is a story problem for all of you mathematicians out there. What are the chances that a wrong number would reach a person who both recognized the name on the caller ID AND had a potentially legitimate reason for getting such a call on a Saturday?

It is enough to make me want to buy a lottery ticket.

2 comments:

Skipper said...

It's very possible that this cute attorney's phone number is on your husband's speed dial...Under these circumstances a wrong number wouldn't be so unusual...in fact, a check of phone records might reveal a plethora of "wrong numbers". Does he shampoo his hair with mini bottles commonly found at hot sheet hotels? Do you find numerous miniature sewing kits coming out in the wash? Is he in the habit of calling dinner "room service"? Have his grooming habits improved? I think this scamp is BUSTED!

Melissa said...

The mind reels--I figured either a totally random coincidence, or some "connection" to his brother! They do say that the wife is always the last to know...